Russian army announces ceasefire in syrias idlib the hindu. Gas production in syria was also not that large on global scale. More than twothirds of russia s foreign income is derived from oil and gas exports. If aleppo falls, the last major urban area of syria will be back in the hands of the assad regime. Syrias bashar alassad is russias only ally in the mediterranean. As a result, the conflict has widened significantly and has taken on a life of its own. The meeting between iran, turkey, and russia in astana, kazakhstan on january 2324, in advance of the next round of u. Russian intervention in syria air power development centre. The four reasons russia wont give up syria, no matter what. Syrian and russian soldiers are seen at a checkpoint near wafideen camp in damascus, march 2. Russian authoritarian leadership under putin is grasping the momentum their.
Optimistically, some feel that the election of donald trump may diminish the us security threat, offer russia new opportunities in the region, and thus allow russia to prioritize other interests than it has been. What could change is how russia prioritizes its interests in the wake of the us election and change in. Fath alsham and eventually to pursue a merger with a number of other local. The largescale civilian killings perpetrated by assads regime have only reinforced the importance of his ouster. Understanding irans role in the syrian conflict rusi. Russias strategic objectives in the middle east and north. Rather than advancing its selfproclaimed objective of fighting terrorism. Today, as in the cold war, observers have imputed a strategy to the russians, like taking control of north africas oil, just as they imagined the russians taking control of the persian gulf in the 1970s and 80s. Why russia is threatening the us in syria geopolitical futures. If moscow and washington can find a common position on the issue, russia may accept assads resignation, the article read. Syria as an increasingly important trading hub for chinese interests in the middle east and africa. I tend to find that russia s interests in syria are pretty clear and they are as follows. The precariousness of the deescalation zones in syria.
Countless times since, russia has vowed to replace what it sees as a coercive u. Putins power play in syria januaryfebruary 2016 107 foreign policy at the munich security conference. The author considers the kremlins diplomacy on syria within the broader system of russian foreign policy in the middle east. Core us interests now at stake in syria, obama says. When asked on october 17 th whether syrias next government has to be headed by assad, russian premier dmitry medvedev replied no, absolutely not. Russia enjoys a historically strong, stable, and friendly relationship with syria, as it did until the arab spring with most of the arab countries.
During all the ups and downs in the present crises engulfing middle east, one thing has remained the same the unflinching support of russia for its longtime ally syria s bashar. The linked russian politicalmilitary initiative in syria with a bombing campaign from 30 september, support of iranianhezbollahsyrian military ground offensives, and convening of international conferences to try and secure the assad regime has changed the dynamics of the 56month syrian conflict. Dec, 2017 on november 22, the leaders of iran, russia, and turkey met in the russian resort town of sochi to discuss syrias future, and on november 28, the latest round of unsponsored talks between representatives of syrian president bashar alassad and the opposition began in geneva. The russian army announced thursday that a ceasefire has begun in syria s idlib, the last major opposition stronghold in the country. Finally, russia s interests in syria are not the same as the interests of bashar assad and his government. In march 2011 antigovernment protests broke out in syria, inspired by a wave of similar demonstrations elsewhere in the middle east and north africa that had begun in december 2010. Power, prestige, and profit azuolas bagdonas1 abstract despite the crimes against humanity committed by bashar assads regime in syria and despite the growing international pressure, russia provided steadfast international.
This view also fails to take seriously the limitations iran faces in syria, especially the very real reluctance of the syrian and russian governments to allow iran to. How to salvage us interests in syria fair observer. Sep 05, 20 the four reasons russia wont give up syria, no matter what obama does. Russian forces, announced in march, as well as to further broaden the. While russian iranian cooperation up to now has been based on their common interests outweighing their ongoing differences, the possibility of increased conflict between iran and its regional rivals could significantly raise the costs for moscow of continuing to cooperate with iran as well as highlight moscows inability to effectively play. Having declared victory while maintaining its warfighting capacity in syria. Jan 17, 2017 in syria, the assad baathist regime rejects the idea. Jun 21, 2017 as syrias war enters its endgame, the risk of a usrussia conflict escalates mary dejevsky. Ultimately, for moscow it is a matter of acquiring leverage to. Russia is unlikely to change its position given that its interests in syria are not only military and strategic, but also commercial and cultural. Whatever the outcome of the iranian elections, the rising nationalist tide in tehran may perceive deescalation zones as dangerous to. And those reasons are so important to russias sense of its own national interests, not to mention its view of itself. They adopt the interests, or even possibly the identity, of the community of. Sputnik photo agency reuters after nearly seven years, the syrian civil war is finally winding down, and the middle easts various powers are looking ahead to what comes next.
Russias economy interests behind its risky military move. Countries and nonstate networks are using the civil war to accomplish their political goals with uninhibited use of force. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis 3 overview in springsummer 2015, russia and iran pursued an initiative for highlevel international talks, aimed at keeping president bashar alassad or at least elements of his regime in place as part of a political transition in syria. Putins announcement underlined crucial points distinguishing russian. He was referring to russian president vladimir putin and his policy in syria. Russias policy on syria after the start of military engagement. Putins middle east game changer satellite imagery provided by allsource analysis confirms the recent arrival of russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in syrias coastal latakia province, indicating that russia has deployed troops inside syria.
Projecting russian military power can be a balm to a restive populace, one of the reasons behind russias syrian moves. The armed conflict in syria has accelerated in recent months. Russia a longtime strategic supporter of syria did not enter the conflict until it appeared assad would fall. Iserbyt served as senior policy advisor in the office of educational research and improvement oeri, u. The president has never formally revoked the goal he declared on aug. Why russia is so involved with the syrian civil war. Russia has an embassy in damascus and syria has an embassy in moscow.
Russian soldiers, on armored vehicles, patrol a street in aleppo, february 2017. Even in the early 2000s, syria was producing a little more than 520,000 barrels of oil per day, which makes roughly 0. At the same time, moscows heavyhanded attempts to tighten its grip over eastern ukraine were accompanied by waves of. Thomas points to optimistic versus pessimistic russian views on how the recent us election will impact us policy in syria. This paper argues that the impact of the eightyear war in syria will. Preserve access of russian companies to syria s market to ensure that the country continues to buy russian made arms and machinery, ensuring at least some degree of diversification of russia s economy, largely driven by the oil and gas sectors. Russian stroytransgaz was building a natural gas processing plant 200 kilometres east of homs in the alraqqa region and the company was involved in technical support for the construction of the arab gas pipeline. The strategic interests at play in us debate over syria al. Aug 23, 20 obamas references to the core national interests that would be threatened by the use or spread of chemical weapons in the middle east could be a sign that a decision on us action in syria is. Syria continues to foster good relations with its traditional allies, iran and russia, who are among the few countries which have supported the syrian government in its conflict with the syrian opposition. Russia s intervention in syria has introduced a dangerous new dynamic into an already volatile and complex conflict. The implications of the syrian war for new regional orders in.
Pdf on jan 1, 2017, sukalpa chakrabarti and others published the new cold war in syria find, read and cite all the. Russia officially launched its airstrikes in syria in september 2015. Interests in the region the heritage foundation skip. There is good reason to broaden our understanding of russian strategy in the middle east. The deployment and use of russian air forces in syria could be a turningpoint for president bashar alassads regime.
As syria is the nexus of russias campaign to expand its regional. As syrias war enters its endgame, the risk of a usrussia. There are several reasons for russia to care about whats happening in syria, here are the most significant. Russia s best asset in the middle east andrej kreutz november 2010 russia nis center. The united states, syria and russia geopolitical futures. External actors and interests as drivers of conflict. Russia and iran pursue divergent interests in syria while the former seeks longterm stability, the latter prefers a malleable syrian regime that accommodates shia militias. May 19, 2017 the turks have their interests in syria, the iranians have their interests in syria, saudis have their interests in syria, the israelis have their interests in syria, and then you zoom an even bigger step out and it seems like almost every western power in the world is somehow participating in bombing syria or attacking isis in some way.
A summit between putin and trump will take place in helsinki on july 16. In the nineteenth century, czarist russia began asserting its geo strategic, economic, religious, and cultural interests in the middle east as framed by its competition with the west. Russia and iran have built up alliances with local businessmen in syria, and each country has established a business council to support and boost these relationships. The fall of libyan leader muammar qadhafi has also contributed to putins obstinacy on syria. Its unanticipated military foray into syria has transformed. Yaakov amidror wrote in october 2015, israel must address both threats by preventing gamechanging weapons, be they iranian or russian, from falling into hezbollahs hands, and prevent. Russia s economy is predominantly dependent on exports of oil and natural gas. Russia turned off the s300 antiaircraft missile system during israels attack. Putins power play in syria how to respond to russias intervention angela stent a t the end of september, russia began conducting air strikes in syria, ostensibly to combat terrorist groups. Its operation plan, objectives, and consequences for the wests policies. Jul 09, 2018 russia and the us have common interests in syria. Sep, 2016 salvaging syrias economy aligns with china and russias own interests. If moscow wishes to avoid further regional unravelling and spiraling radicalisation, this is an investment worth making.
Apr 12, 2017 syrias allies in its civil war are iran, iraq, hezbollah lebanonbased and russia. But the united states has several interests in syria. We face the prospect of a clash between the two main coalitions led by the united states and russia over the disposition of a post. Department of education, during the first reagan administration, where she first blew the whistle on a major technology initiative which would control curriculum in americas classrooms. As the war in syria grinds on into its third year, support among the american public for more robust u. Russia the washington institute for near east policy. The us should also support the turkish and qatari effort to forestall a merger between mainstream islamist fighters and the. Thus, the us should stop pretending that its core interests in syria conflict with russia s goals in the region. Deconfliction agreement with russia in syria undermines u. Russia to back israel against iran in syria,middle east monitor, may 29, 2018. In this july 2017 file photo, president trump meets with russian president vladimir putin at a g20 summit in hamburg. Iraqi officials also demonstrated a strong interest to. Russias many interests in syria the washington institute. Oct 04, 2016 syrian troops backed by russian airpower and special forces have been closing in on aleppo, syrias second largest city and a stronghold of the opposition to what most still call the government of syria.
Moscow worked to build diplomatic and cultural ties, especially in syria and palestine, to create constituencies on which it could later rely for support. Oct, 2015 it may be useful to list probable russian and american interests in syrias ongoing civil war in what might be considered a realist analysis. A guest post by rasmus jacobsen, cofounder of atlas assistance. This book is the first to offer a comprehensive survey of moscows foreign policy interests in syria. Why russia is suddenly interested in syrias civil war the. Moscow has counted an assadled syria as its closest ally in the arab world for more than forty years. Competition between washington and moscow for a say in any peace deal is increasing the danger of a. The strikes constitute russias biggest intervention in the middle east in decades. Despite their alliance, russia has never had much influence over syria s policies. Nov 18, 2015 what does russia really want in syria. Sep 09, 2015 why russia is suddenly interested in syrias civil war. The allies of the syrian regime are not united in their interests. Developing a containment strategy in syria center for strategic. Another round of talks in sochi is planned for early next year.
During the last month, russia held channels of communication wide open with egypt, jordan, turkey, kuwait, saudi arabia and israel. One state and, of course, first and foremost the united states, has overstepped its national borders in every way, he warned. The key sectors targeted by russian and iranian companies include oil and gas, electricity, agriculture, tourism and real estate. There are over 2,000 radical islamists or terrorists born in russia mainly from north caucasus that are fighting in syria. But syria itself is not a major player on the global gas and oil market. Underlining the fluidity of the situation on the ground, in january 2017 jabhat fateh alsham merged. Russias economy interests behind its risky military move in. The rebels fighting in syria at the onset of the initial conflict allies were turkey, saudi arabia and qatar. Both regime and rebels see themselves in a fight for survival that leaves no room for compromise. Russiaus relations and the end of syria geopolitical futures.
Russiansyrian relations have always been more political. What are indicators of change in russian strategic interests in syria. Since the start of the russian air strikes on 30 september. I will focus on president vladimir putins efforts to return russia to the middle east and especially highlight iran, syria, and libya, and describe how these efforts sow instability and thus hurt u. Its up to the syrian people to decide who will be the head of syria. Both the russian federation and the united states have strong interests at stake in syria,and these interests overlap in part, but not completely both the united states and russia seek to ensure a stable and unified syria, though the two countries disagree on how to achieve this. Tasnimthe latest round of attacks by the israeli air force on iranian targets in syria january 24, 2019 revealed the growing tensions in the relations between iran and russia regarding military activities in syria. How and why russia is fixing syrias devastated economy gri. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian.
Syrian and soviet interests back in rough alignment. Sep 07, 20 regime change in syria is still at least officially u. By the way, syria is a multiethnic, multifaith and a fairly complex nation. Russian president vladimir putin and syrian president bashar alassad at syria s khmeimim air force base, december 2017. Syria can effectively address germanys security interests both. More than five years of armed conflict has had a catastrophic impact on the syrian economy. Careful distilling of statements by russian leaders and russias strategic documents would reveal there are several important national interests of russia at stake in syria, including.
Download pdf file of developing a containment strategy in syria. There are small amounts of us aid entering into some oppositionheld districts in syria now, but even in these districts rebel factions squabble about how to use foreign monies and who should manage them. Russias strategic interest in syria themarketswork. So far, the russia sponsored sochi peace talks appear to have yielded little progress, either for peace in syria or for russia s interests. Russia s only mediterranean naval base for its black sea fleet is located in the. Russian and american interests in syria nuclear diner. Syria s violence against civilians has also seen it suspended from the arab league and the organisation of islamic cooperation in 2012. The russian intervention in syria was a tactical operation without any clear strategic end. Putin that russian interests lie in supporting a politi.
The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis. Russias position on syria is very close to that of iran. Despite their alliance, russia has never had much influence over syrias policies. Russian strategy in the middle east rand corporation. Russia syria relations refers to the bilateral relationship between russia and syria. National interests report graham allison and robert d. Syria in moscows reassertion and expansion of its strategic interests across the middle east. The rocky marriage of convenience between russia and iran.
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